Model Risk Management Challenges and Opportunities in a Volatile World

Contending with an unprecedented combination of shocks, financial risk modelers have lately had to muddle through some very tough times. Indeed, when you are relied upon to forecast the financial future, volatility and uncertainty – fueled by everything from a global pandemic to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to high inflation and rising interest rates – doesn’t exactly help your cause.

Risk models, after all, primarily rely on historical data to make predictions, and now that information is colliding with data on current events that have little or no precedent. Complicating matters further for modelers are government-support programs, which were initially intended to mitigate default risk but may soon sunset as a result of tightening post-pandemic monetary policies.

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