Vacatures in Institutioneel Vermogensbeheer

Modelling indicates a USD75 increase in carbon prices could cause 20 procent average fall in global equity prices

Bron: Nikesh Patel, Head of Investment Strategy UK, Van Lanschot Kempen - 30 juni 2021
  • New analysis from Van Lanschot Kempen models the extent to which higher carbon prices could lead to a decline in global equity markets.
  • A global carbon price shock of USD75 on polluting companies could cause a 4-20% fall in global equity valuations; ranging from 4% in the case of Scope 1 and 2 emissions, and 20% in case of Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions.1
  • The impact of higher carbon prices and the scope of emissions coverage is not yet priced into markets – this could create opportunities for investors allocating to the transition economy.
  • Van Lanschot Kempen estimates that adopting a climate-positive portfolio could add 20% to returns over the next decade.

New analysis by Van Lanschot Kempen indicates the extent to which higher carbon prices could lead to a decline in global equity markets. Van Lanschot Kempen has modelled the impact of shock increase in carbon prices globally, implemented through either a carbon tax or emissions trading scheme (ETS), as part of research into how responses to climate change can be integrated into investment analysis to protect and enhance the portfolios of long-term investors.

The research analyses both the impact of different carbon prices on equity markets and also the effect of higher prices across emissions Scopes 1 to 3 on different parts of company value chains.1 To improve the return/risk profile of the investment portfolio, Van Lanschot Kempen decided last year to add carbon price as a risk indicator to the investment risk framework for its fiduciary management clients.

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